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Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is designed to designed to supplement and strengthen the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Only countries that are already Parties to the Convention can ratify (or accept, approve, or accede to) the Protocol, and thereby become Parties to it, taking on targets (with penalties) to reduce emissions.
The Kyoto Protocol has become more and more complex.
Initially the problem with the Protocol was that countries had no way of knowing when the needed technology would emerge, so it was very difficult to commit to targets when missing them was even quite likely.
As a result, the targets were watered down and 'flexible mechanisms' were introduced, and with them, immense complexity.
Some thought this created a working document, others decided it had become even less likely to work. Certainly more countries were willing to sign on as a result of these new provisions.
Yet even as the Protocol appears to approach ratification, The Economist magazine has recently described it as 'a shambles' with 'unrealistic targets.' Why is it so difficult to negotiate? Perhaps because it seeks to regulate energy globally.
A report on the key operational features of the Kyoto Protocol is available. It originally formed an annex to a paper on Australian business opportunities under the Kyoto Protocol, completed by International Trade Strategies Pty Ltd.
The Kyoto Protocol and the APEC economies
The Australian APEC Study Centre at Monash University completed a research report in 2004 on the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on developing APEC economies.
Click here for the full report or for individual sections of it.
Forecasting Global Output and Emissions
Mr Ian Castles, statistician and Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University, outlines flaws in the predictions behind the Kyoto Protocol.
Click here for the article [50k Word doc]
For a recent backgrounder outlining the problems with the Kyoto Protocol: 'Kyoto Protocol---On shaky ground', click here
For a recent backgrounder on how to plan climate change policy: 'How do we get an effective approach to climate change?', click here
Has Russia doomed the Kyoto Protocol?
At the World Climate Change Conference which recently concluded in Moscow President Putin disappointed supporters of the Kyoto Protocol by announcing that Russia would not announce ratification, as expected, but had put the matter to further study.
At a press conference on 3 October, his economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, provided a detailed briefing on the results of a comprehensive study in Russia of the Kyoto Protocol. It covers the science of global warming and climate change, the efficacy of the Kyoto Protocol, the costs of the Protocol and the impact on Russia of accession. It explains why Putin made his announcement and foreshadows the likelihood that Russia will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol and that it will remain still born.
The study found the scientific case supporting global warming was weak, that the argument that human activity was a leading factor in causing global warming was not made, that the Kyoto Protocol must slow down economic growth and that the economic impact on Russia would be severe.
Illarionov set out ten questions arising from the study which the Russians had invited Professor Bert Bolin from Sweden, one of the leading scientists supporting the UN report on climate, and a group of colleagues. He also reported the questions were not answered.
Anyone interested in global warming and the Kyoto Protocol should read his full presentation. The text can be accessed here. [100k Word doc]
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APEC Study Centre to hold international conference on climate change on April 4 2005 in Canberra.
For more details,
click here
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